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The First Six Months of 2026
The defining risk of 2026 is not a single geopolitical conflict, cyber incident or economic disruption. It is the growing likelihood that several of these challenges occur simultaneously, creating effects far greater than the sum of their individual parts.
The Surveillance Cup
When the world’s greatest tournament kicks off this week, it will also become the largest live test of the machinery of cross-border control the democratic world has yet staged. The football is the spectacle. The apparatus behind it deserves equal attention. On 11 June 2026, the largest FIFA World Cup…
Disinformation, Deepfakes & Decision-Making Risk
The rapid development of artificial intelligence and digital communication technologies is transforming the information environment in which governments, businesses and institutions operate.
The Beautiful Game’s Ugly Politics
Football and politics have never been separate. In this thought-provoking analysis, Toby Cadman explores how the 2026 FIFA World Cup has become a stage for geopolitical influence, institutional controversy, and commercial interests, raising uncomfortable questions about who truly benefits from the beautiful game.
Energy Security, Resource Competition & Strategic Stability
Energy security has once again emerged as a central issue shaping geopolitical relations, economic stability and strategic decision-making. Global markets continue to face uncertainty driven by regional conflicts, sanctions regimes, supply chain disruptions and increasing competition over critical resources.
Artificial Intelligence, Regulatory Competition & Strategic Exposure
Artificial intelligence is rapidly becoming a central area of geopolitical, regulatory and economic competition. Governments across multiple jurisdictions are accelerating efforts to establish legal frameworks governing the development, deployment and oversight of AI technologies.
Political Risk & the Age of Regulatory Uncertainty
Economic instruments have become central to the exercise of geopolitical power. Governments are increasingly using sanctions, export controls, investment restrictions and financial regulation not only as policy tools, but as strategic mechanisms to influence global behaviour.
Critical Infrastructure, Cyber Exposure & Operational Resilience
As governments, corporations and institutions become increasingly dependent on interconnected digital systems, critical infrastructure is emerging as one of the most sensitive areas of strategic risk exposure.
Strategic Risk Snapshot
Economic instruments have become central to the exercise of geopolitical power. Governments are increasingly using sanctions, export controls, investment restrictions and financial regulation not only as policy tools, but as strategic mechanisms to influence global behaviour.
The International Community’s Attention Deficit Disorder
There is a recurring pathology in international affairs: outrage without endurance.





